Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe

Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable planning. Forecasting of future land use cover (LULC) change the years 2034 2050 was performed using Cellular Automata Markov model current fast-growing Epworth district Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe. The stochastic CA–Markov modelling procedure validation yielded kappa statistics above 80%, ascertaining good agreement. spatial distribution LULC classes CBD/Industrial area, water irrigated croplands as projected show slight notable changes. For scenarios in 2050, low–medium-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 11.1 km2 12.3 between 2018 2050. Similarly, high-density 18.6 22.4 Assessment effects climate on potential soil erosion risk were undertaken by applying representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) scenarios, ensemble averages multiple general circulation models (GCMs) used derive rainfall erosivity factor RUSLE model. Average loss rates both RCP4.5 RCP8.5, be high due large extent disturbed green spaces exposed processes, therefore increasing risk, with having more impact than RCP8.5 a higher applied erosivity. wide average declined following decline vulnerable that erodible. Overall, along flanks drainage network